ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common form of supraventricular arrhythmia following ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 scores are used to estimate thromboembolic risk in cases of AF. Their usefulness in predicting the development of AF in patients presenting STEMI is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive value of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in patients with AF following STEMI. DESIGN AND SETTING: This prospective cohort study on 696 patients with STEMI was conducted at a tertiary-level cardiology clinic in a public university hospital. METHODS: Models including clinical and laboratory parameters were constructed to test the predictive value of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Patients were divided into two groups: with and without AF. Predictors of AF were determined using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: In the patients with AF, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were significantly higher than in those without AF (for both P < 0.001). Factors associated with AF in multivariate analyses included CHA2DS2-VASc score (odds ratio, OR: 1.48; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.25-1.75; P < 0.001), peak creatine kinase-myocardial binding (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.00-1.003; P = 0.0024), duration of the coronary intensive care unit stay (OR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.24-12.30; P = 0.001) and no use of renin-angiotensin system blockers (OR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.14-4.10; P = 0.0017). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that CHA2DS2-VASc scores were significant predictors for new-onset AF (C-statistic: 0.698; 95% CI: 0.631-0.765; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores predicted new AF in patients presenting STEMI.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Young Adult , Atrial Fibrillation/etiology , Atrial Fibrillation/blood , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/complications , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/blood , Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis , Predictive Value of Tests , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , ROC CurveABSTRACT
Abstract Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of epicardial fat thickness (EFT) in CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) score risk groups. Methods: A total of 158 consecutive patients (75 females, 83 males, mean age 70.8±6.3 years) admitted routinely for cardiologic control were divided into two groups according to their CHA2DS2-VASc scores (scores 0 and 1 were regarded as low risk, and score ≥2 as high risk). One hundred twenty-five of 158 patients had a high-risk score. Results: Mean EFT was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (4.34±0.62 vs. 5.37±1.0; P<0.001). EFT was positively correlated with CHA2DS2-VASc score (r=0.577, P<0.001). According to receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, EFT value of 4.4 mm was found to be predictive of high risk in CHA2DS2-VASc score with 80% of sensitivity and 79% of specificity (C-statistic = 0.875, P<0.001, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76-0.90). And according to multivariate logistic regression analysis, EFT was an independent predictor of high thromboembolic risk in terms of CHA2DS2-VASc score. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that echocardiographic EFT measurement could provide additional information on assessing cardiovascular risks, such as thromboembolic events, and individuals with increased EFT should receive more attention to reduce unfavorable cardiovascular risk factors and the development of future cardiovascular events.